Category
Transport
Built for mobility teams deciding which markets are buying vehicles, which are buying journeys, and where the balance between the two is tipping.
COICOP 7 · WDP 2026.2.3
Transport in numbers, 2026 to 2036
USD 8.27T
Spending in 2026
USD 12.84T
Spending in 2036
+USD 4.57T
Added by 2036
4.49%
Annual growth to 2036
USD 1,013
Per person a year
11.7%
Share of the global wallet
nominal USD, current prices
We map and forecast transport spending across cities.
We can identify the future city markets for transport.
Annual consumer spending on transport, 2000 to 2040.
- Tokyo: USD 83bn in 2000
- New York City: USD 60bn in 2000
- Los Angeles: USD 46bn in 2000
- Osaka: USD 35bn in 2000
- San Francisco: USD 28bn in 2000
We analyse which demographics will contribute most to that growth.
By spending tier
- Rich: 35.9% of spending in 2026, 50.4% of the spending added by 2036
- Upper middle: 15.6% of spending in 2026, 16.2% of the spending added by 2036
- Core middle: 25.4% of spending in 2026, 21.2% of the spending added by 2036
- Lower middle: 19.2% of spending in 2026, 11.8% of the spending added by 2036
- Poor: 4.0% of spending in 2026, 0.5% of the spending added by 2036
By age band
- 65 and over: 12.6% of spending in 2026, 19.1% of the spending added by 2036
- 45-65: 29.5% of spending in 2026, 30.1% of the spending added by 2036
- 30-45: 24.1% of spending in 2026, 20.4% of the spending added by 2036
- 15-30: 18.6% of spending in 2026, 18.9% of the spending added by 2036
- 0-15: 15.2% of spending in 2026, 11.5% of the spending added by 2036
We break down transport into subcategories.
Area is spending in 2026. USD 8.27T across 14 published lines of the model.
Motor cars
USD 2.19T · 26.5%
Fuel and lubricants
USD 2.14T · 25.8%
Vehicle maintenance and repair
USD 902bn · 10.9%
Buses and coaches
USD 652bn · 7.9%
Passenger transport by air
USD 532bn · 6.4%
Other vehicle services
USD 466bn · 5.6%
Vehicle parts and accessories
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Taxis and hired cars
USD 390bn · 4.7%
USD 246bn
USD 135bn
USD 102bn
- Motor cyclesUSD 246bn
- Passenger transport by railwayUSD 135bn
- BicyclesUSD 102bn
- Combined passenger transportUSD 55bn
- Passenger transport by sea and inland waterwayUSD 46bn
- Other purchased transport servicesUSD 27bn
Motor cars
USD 2.19T · 26.5%
Fuel and lubricants
USD 2.14T · 25.8%
Vehicle maintenance and repair
USD 902bn · 10.9%
Buses and coaches
USD 652bn · 7.9%
Passenger transport by air
USD 532bn · 6.4%
Other vehicle services
USD 466bn · 5.6%
Vehicle parts and accessories
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Taxis and hired cars
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Motor cycles
USD 246bn · 3.0%
Passenger transport by railway
USD 135bn · 1.6%
Bicycles
USD 102bn · 1.2%
Combined passenger transport
USD 55bn · 0.7%
USD 46bn
USD 27bn
- Passenger transport by sea and inland waterwayUSD 46bn
- Other purchased transport servicesUSD 27bn
Five decisions a mobility team can settle with this data.
01
Market entry and prioritisation
The cities holding the most transport spending today are not the ones adding it fastest. Across the forty largest markets in the model the spread runs from 1.7% a year to 10.7%, which is the difference between a market that transforms by 2036 and one that barely moves. We rank every city on the spending that is forming rather than the spending already there.
02
Pricing and affordability
Spending on transport by rich consumers compounds at 5.91% a year, against 0.61% for the poorest. A cheaper range can hold its volume and still be defending a shrinking share of the growth, because the growth is not sitting where the volume is. We map spending power against your own price range in every market you sell in.
03
Category and portfolio strategy
Inside the category, passenger transport by road compounds at 6.08% a year while combined passenger transport manages 3.35%. Those are two different shelf decisions inside one category averaging 4.49%, and the average is what most portfolio reviews are still built on.
04
Segmentation and targeting
Spending on transport by the over-65s compounds at 6.28% a year, against 3.53% for the under-15s. In New York City the over-65s already hold 11% of the category. A pipeline aimed at the wrong life stage is chasing the slower half of the market, and the gap widens every year to 2036.
05
Demand forecasting and sizing
The category adds $4.57 trillion between 2026 and 2036, and none of it arrives evenly. A capacity decision taken now rests on the market that will exist in ten years rather than the one visible today. We project every market and every year to 2050.
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