Category
Alcohol & Tobacco
Built for drinks teams deciding where volume is still growing, where the money is moving to premium instead, and which markets are worth defending.
COICOP 2
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco in numbers, 2026 to 2036
USD 1.80T
Spending in 2026
USD 2.76T
Spending in 2036
+USD 0.97T
Added by 2036
4.39%
Annual growth to 2036
USD 220
Per person a year
2.5%
Share of the global wallet
nominal USD, current prices
We map and forecast alcohol and tobacco spending across cities.
We can identify the future city markets for alcohol and tobacco.
Annual consumer spending on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2000 to 2040.
- Tokyo: USD 19bn in 2000
- New York City: USD 9bn in 2000
- Osaka: USD 8bn in 2000
- London: USD 8bn in 2000
- Los Angeles: USD 7bn in 2000
We analyse which demographics will contribute most to that growth.
By spending tier
- Rich: 28.9% of spending in 2026, 44.6% of the spending added by 2036
- Upper middle: 15.6% of spending in 2026, 17.1% of the spending added by 2036
- Core middle: 27.8% of spending in 2026, 23.7% of the spending added by 2036
- Lower middle: 22.8% of spending in 2026, 14.3% of the spending added by 2036
- Poor: 5.0% of spending in 2026, 0.2% of the spending added by 2036
By age band
- 65 and over: 16.8% of spending in 2026, 25.9% of the spending added by 2036
- 45-65: 36.3% of spending in 2026, 35.6% of the spending added by 2036
- 30-45: 25.1% of spending in 2026, 18.0% of the spending added by 2036
- 15-30: 21.8% of spending in 2026, 20.5% of the spending added by 2036
- 0-15: 0.0% of spending in 2026, 0.0% of the spending added by 2036
We break down alcoholic beverages and tobacco into subcategories.
Area is spending in 2026. USD 1.80T across 4 published lines of the model.
Tobacco
USD 837bn · 46.5%
Beer
USD 404bn · 22.5%
Wine
USD 296bn · 16.5%
Spirits
USD 262bn · 14.6%
Tobacco
USD 837bn · 46.5%
Beer
USD 404bn · 22.5%
Wine
USD 296bn · 16.5%
Spirits
USD 262bn · 14.6%
Five decisions a drinks team can settle with this data.
01
Market entry and prioritisation
The cities holding the most alcohol and tobacco spending today are not the ones adding it fastest. Across the forty largest markets in the model the spread runs from 1.8% a year to 7.2%, which is the difference between a market that transforms by 2036 and one that barely moves. We rank every city on the spending that is forming rather than the spending already there.
02
Pricing and affordability
Spending on alcoholic beverages and tobacco by rich consumers compounds at 6.23% a year, against 0.24% for the poorest. A cheaper range can hold its volume and still be defending a shrinking share of the growth, because the growth is not sitting where the volume is. We map spending power against your own price range in every market you sell in.
03
Category and portfolio strategy
Inside the category, spirits compounds at 4.63% a year while wine manages 4.21%. Those are two different shelf decisions inside one category averaging 4.39%, and the average is what most portfolio reviews are still built on.
04
Segmentation and targeting
Spending on alcoholic beverages and tobacco by the over-65s compounds at 6.22% a year, against 0.00% for the under-15s. In New York City the over-65s already hold 14% of the category. A pipeline aimed at the wrong life stage is chasing the slower half of the market, and the gap widens every year to 2036.
05
Demand forecasting and sizing
The category adds $0.97 trillion between 2026 and 2036, and none of it arrives evenly. A capacity decision taken now rests on the market that will exist in ten years rather than the one visible today. We project every market and every year to 2050.
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