World Data Lab

See how every figure is built.

Four steps, from a household survey to a spending forecast for every market, category and cohort, each one tested against what actually happened.

Five lives, measured by spending. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Five lives, measured by spending.
AgeLifeSpending perspective
10At tenI have never earned anything, and I am already somebody’s customer. Books, clothes, the bus. My parents pay, but the spending is mine.
24At twenty-fourI am two years off a first salary, so no payslip has my name on it yet. I still spend every week: rent, groceries, a phone plan on $38 a day.
31At thirty-oneA baby, three weeks in. One of our salaries is on pause, so income says this household just shrank. Our spending has never been higher.
48At forty-eightI earn well and I am careful with it. Income overstates me. Only the part I actually spend is a market anyone can compete for.
76At seventy-sixI left the payroll sixteen years ago and income stopped recording me. I still travel, still pay for health, still buy for the grandchildren.

Everyone spends. Not everyone is a consumer.

Spending measures all five of those lives on one scale, but below a certain level it buys only survival: food, fuel, a roof. A consumer begins where choice begins, so we draw a line.

World population by daily spending band, 2026, 2021 PPP dollars. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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World population by daily spending band, 2026, 2021 PPP dollars.
BandDaily spendingBillion people
Vulnerable and poorunder $13.203.5
Lower middle$13.20 to $452.9
Core middle$45 to $901.1
Upper middle$90 to $1300.33
Rich$130 and above0.32

The consumer class is everyone who spends $13.20 a day or more, in 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars.

01Build the picturefrom consumption surveys and other sources02Count the spendershow many people spend how much03Split the averageby every spending tier and age band04Validate itagainst what actually happened

We build a complete consumer picture from consumption surveys and additional data sources.

Illustrative weekly household consumption survey. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Illustrative weekly household consumption survey.
Spending categoryWeekly spending
Food and non-alcoholic beverages41.2
Alcohol and tobacco6.75
Clothing and footwear12.4
Housing, water and fuel96
Health18.3
Transport34.6
Communication11.05

We turn each survey’s spread of spending into how many people spend how much.

Daily spending distribution, 2026, 2021 PPP dollars. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Daily spending distribution, 2026, 2021 PPP dollars.
Daily spending (PPP dollars)Density
0.500.0154
0.560.021
0.630.0224
0.710.0224
0.800.0224
0.900.0224
1.010.0224
1.130.0224
1.280.0224
1.430.0224
1.610.0288
1.810.0548
2.040.0937
2.290.1196
2.580.1261
2.900.1261
3.250.1261
3.660.1261
4.110.133
4.620.1609
5.200.2027
5.840.2306
6.570.242
7.390.2594
8.300.2855
9.340.3029
10.500.3083
11.800.3125
13.260.3187
14.910.3224
16.760.3222
18.850.3188
21.190.3117
23.820.3003
26.780.2866
30.100.2743
33.840.2644
38.050.2541
42.770.2425
48.090.2303
54.060.2161
60.770.1996
68.320.1819
76.810.1633
86.350.1446
97.070.1273
109.130.1095
122.690.0887
137.930.0695
155.060.0593
174.320.055
195.970.0466
220.310.0342
247.680.0248
278.440.0189
313.030.013
351.910.0091
395.620.0082
444.760.0077
500.000.0056

We split the national average into every spending tier and age band.

Annualised spending growth by tier and age, 2026-2036, nominal. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Annualised spending growth by tier and age, 2026-2036, nominal.
Spending tier0-1515-3030-4545-6565+
Poor-0.1%0.2%-0.8%-0.5%1.8%
Lower middle1.6%3.2%1.7%3.2%5.3%
Core middle3.3%4%3.1%3.7%4.9%
Upper middle4.1%4.6%3.7%4.2%6.1%
Rich5.2%5.8%5.1%5.5%7.6%

We validate our data off these checks.

20103.25 billion in the middle class by 2020

Homi Kharas, our co-founder, put the number in an OECD working paper ten years ahead of it. The outturn, as we later measured it, was 3.4 billion. He forecast their spending at $49 trillion and it came in at $49.5 trillion.

Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2010. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2010.
MeasureForecast / ChinaOutturn / IndiaUnit
People in the middle class, 20203.253.4bn
What they spent, 20204949.5$T

2022Half of Asia in the consumer class by 2024

Our founders, Wolfgang Fengler and Homi Kharas, called it at Brookings in June 2022, when Asia-Pacific stood at 48.7%. Our current model has the line crossed in 2023, a year earlier than called, and 2024 at 53.6%.

Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2022. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2022.
MeasureForecast / ChinaOutturn / IndiaUnit
Year Asia passes half20242023year

2023India adds more consumers than China in 2024

Our World Consumer Outlook for 2024 called India 34 million new consumers against China’s 32 million. Our current model has 40.9 million against 35.5 million, and India ahead again in 2025.

Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2023. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2023.
MeasureForecast / ChinaOutturn / IndiaUnit
New consumers, 2024: China / India35.540.9m

2025131 million new consumers in 2025

Our 2025 outlook, The Resilient Consumer, called 131 million people joining the consumer class in 2025, 47 million of them in India. Our current model has 128.6 million, and 45.3 million in India.

Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2025. Source: World Data Intelligence.
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Forecast checked against what happened, called in 2025.
MeasureForecast / ChinaOutturn / IndiaUnit
New consumers worldwide, 2025131128.6m
New consumers in India, 20254745.3m

What every figure carries.

Segmented by

  • 100+ spending groups
  • 100+ income groups
  • Gender
  • Age (0 to 80+)
  • 8 generations
  • Household
  • Cities / states / rural
  • Nominal, PPP, local currencies

Specialized data

  • Financial Inclusion & Behaviour
  • Net Wealth & Assets
  • Case-by-case affordability thresholds
  • Case-by-case pricing analysis
  • Retail Opportunity Locator

Backcast

2000

Rebuilt from surveys and national accounts

Nowcast

2026

Measured for this year

Forecast

2050

Projected every year

Where the data comes from.

Public and open

Published by statistical offices and international bodies.

  • Household surveys
  • National accounts
  • Macro forecasts
  • Population, geography and alternative data

Private and licensed

Licensed from data providers and partners.

  • Country surveys in detail
  • Company data

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