Keynote deck - EBANX Summit 2026
Projecting the future of emerging markets: what will 2036 look like?
Ten years of middle-class growth, online spending and payment adoption in emerging markets, modelled adult by adult. 29 slides of projections on who can pay, where they spend, and what still blocks the checkout.
New middle-class adults by 2036, all in emerging markets
Spent online in 2036, up from $9.5T in 2026
New online buyers in emerging markets, 92% middle class
Free download
Get the full deck
29 slides, PDF. Enter your details and the deck arrives in your inbox.
Trusted by global leaders
Inside the deck
Four questions, answered with numbers
The deck follows the money from income to checkout: who reaches the middle class, how much of their spending moves online, what threshold each payment method still requires, and which generations and markets carry the growth.
The middle class: who is able to pay?
A world of 6.2 bn adults and $61.4 T of spending, split by daily spending per capita. All middle-class headcount growth is now in emerging markets, and two thirds of the new entrants are poorer people moving up.
Online world: where does spending happen?
Online spending in emerging markets grows 1.8x faster than global middle-class spending. A third of all new consumer spending to 2036 is online, and 60% of that sits in emerging markets.
Lowering the bar: how do we unlock new consumers?
You can wait for income to rise, or you can lower the bar. Moving the checkout bar from $25 to $6 a day brings in 2.6 bn people who exist today, 700 M of whom already pay digitally but do not buy online.
The checkout: who is buying?
Gen Z and Gen X account for most of the volume growth in online buyers. India becomes five markets in one, and a readiness-versus-growth map shows where rails are finished and where they are not.
Key findings
Three charts from the deck
Source: World Data Lab, population aged 15+, emerging markets where noted.
All middle-class growth is now in emerging markets
Middle-class adults, 2026 to 2036.
Online spending hits $23 T by 2036
Total adult spending, with the online share highlighted. +$40 T total, +$13 T online.
Every payment method has its own bar
The daily spending level where the majority (50%) of emerging adults holds and uses each payment method, 2026. Lower the bar to a quarter of adults and every threshold drops: $6, $8, $11.
Free download
Ten years of emerging-market demand, in 29 slides
Middle-class growth, online spending, payment thresholds and market readiness through 2036. Fill in the form and the deck arrives in your inbox.
- Who reaches the middle class by 2036
- Where online spending lands, market by market
- The daily spending bar behind every payment method
- 144 markets scored on readiness versus growth