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After the Oil Shock:
Consumer Spending in Turbulent Times
What happens to 40 million people if oil prices double?
The oil shock is real, but the consumer story is more resilient than the headlines suggest. Join World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill and Homi Kharas, the economist who defined the global middle class, as World Data Lab takes you inside the data: which categories face the steepest pressure, where resilience is emerging, and how to navigate forecasting when the picture is moving this fast.
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What the data shows
- 40M
- People could be held back from entering the middle class by 2027 if oil prices double, one scenario, with major implications for every spending category.
- 110M+
- People joined the global consumer class in 2025. The underlying growth story hasn't disappeared.
- ≠
- Not all spending categories bend the same way. We're tracking which ones break first, and which hold.
In this session
The oil shock scenario: what the models say
A rigorous look at how an oil price doubling flows through consumer incomes, by region and income tier.
Category-by-category pressure map
Which discretionary categories compress first? Where do essentials absorb the shock differently across markets?
Where resilience is emerging
Markets and segments showing stronger-than-expected consumer durability, and why.
Forecasting in a fast-moving picture
How World Data Lab's methodology adapts when macro conditions are shifting week to week. Live Q&A with speakers.
Speakers
Homi Kharas
Co-founder, World Data Lab
Senior Fellow, Brookings
Anu Madgavkar
Partner, McKinsey Global Institute
Indermit Gill
Chief Economist, World Bank
Thomas Bauer
COO, World Data Lab
Reshma Sheoraj
SVP Strategic Engagements, World Data Lab
Wolfgang Fengler
CEO, World Data Lab
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