Category
Transport
Built for mobility teams deciding which markets are buying vehicles, which are buying journeys, and where the balance between the two is tipping.
COICOP 7
Start the shortlist where the category is bought.
Every country to 2050, all 9,400+ cities to 2040. One model, one shared scale for a market and a city.
The category down to its 13 lines. Each with its own size, growth and cohort, never one blended average.
Every figure by age band and spending tier. A target cohort is only a filter on the same numbers.
Priced against what each market can afford. The share of a city that can buy at your price, and when.
USD 8.27T
Spending in 2026
USD 12.84T
Spending in 2036
+USD 4.57T
Added by 2036
4.49%
Annual growth to 2036
USD 1,013
Per person a year
11.7%
Share of the global wallet
nominal USD, current prices
Where the category is bought
See the data
| City | Country | 2026 (USD bn) | 2036 (USD bn) | Annual growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | United States | 138.2 | 182.3 | 2.81 |
| Los Angeles | United States | 116.3 | 166.0 | 3.62 |
| San Francisco | United States | 74.4 | 104.5 | 3.46 |
| Mexico City | Mexico | 64.0 | 91.0 | 3.58 |
| Tokyo | Japan | 62.1 | 80.1 | 2.58 |
| London | United Kingdom | 59.0 | 88.3 | 4.11 |
| Paris | France | 56.6 | 73.2 | 2.59 |
| Miami | United States | 50.8 | 70.3 | 3.31 |
| Istanbul | Turkey | 46.3 | 79.1 | 5.51 |
| Jakarta | Indonesia | 45.5 | 100.1 | 8.19 |
| Chicago | United States | 44.4 | 56.9 | 2.51 |
| Seoul | South Korea | 38.7 | 51.4 | 2.87 |
| Washington | United States | 35.2 | 49.7 | 3.53 |
| Shanghai | China | 33.6 | 47.5 | 3.52 |
| Moscow | Russia | 32.1 | 38.0 | 1.68 |
| Toronto | Canada | 31.1 | 43.3 | 3.37 |
| New Delhi | India | 28.5 | 78.6 | 10.68 |
| Seattle | United States | 28.3 | 41.6 | 3.95 |
| Beijing | China | 27.6 | 49.0 | 5.90 |
| Houston | United States | 27.1 | 43.0 | 4.70 |
Time entry to the year a city reaches your price.
Annual consumer spending on transport, 2000 to 2040.
- New York City: USD 138bn in 2026
- Los Angeles: USD 116bn in 2026
- San Francisco: USD 74bn in 2026
- Mexico City: USD 64bn in 2026
- Tokyo: USD 62bn in 2026
See the data
| City | Country code | 2026 (USD bn) |
|---|---|---|
| New York City | USA | 138.2 |
| Los Angeles | USA | 116.3 |
| San Francisco | USA | 74.4 |
| Mexico City | MEX | 64.0 |
| Tokyo | JPN | 62.1 |
Aim the range at the cohort that is arriving.
By spending tier
- Rich: 35.9% of spending in 2026, 50.4% of the spending added by 2036
- Upper middle: 15.6% of spending in 2026, 16.2% of the spending added by 2036
- Core middle: 25.4% of spending in 2026, 21.2% of the spending added by 2036
- Lower middle: 19.2% of spending in 2026, 11.8% of the spending added by 2036
- Poor: 4.0% of spending in 2026, 0.5% of the spending added by 2036
By age band
- 65 and over: 12.6% of spending in 2026, 19.1% of the spending added by 2036
- 45-65: 29.5% of spending in 2026, 30.1% of the spending added by 2036
- 30-45: 24.1% of spending in 2026, 20.4% of the spending added by 2036
- 15-30: 18.6% of spending in 2026, 18.9% of the spending added by 2036
- 0-15: 15.2% of spending in 2026, 11.5% of the spending added by 2036
See the data
| Cohort | Dimension | 2026 spending (%) | Added by 2036 (%) | Annual growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor | Spending tier | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.61 |
| Lower middle | Spending tier | 19.2 | 11.8 | 2.96 |
| Core middle | Spending tier | 25.4 | 21.2 | 3.86 |
| Upper middle | Spending tier | 15.6 | 16.2 | 4.63 |
| Rich | Spending tier | 35.9 | 50.4 | 5.91 |
| 0-15 | Age band | 15.2 | 11.5 | 3.53 |
| 15-30 | Age band | 18.6 | 18.9 | 4.54 |
| 30-45 | Age band | 24.1 | 20.4 | 3.92 |
| 45-65 | Age band | 29.5 | 30.1 | 4.57 |
| 65 and over | Age band | 12.6 | 19.1 | 6.28 |
Weight the portfolio to the lines that are moving.
Area is spending in 2026. USD 8.27T across 14 published lines of the model.
Motor cars
USD 2.19T · 26.5%
Fuel and lubricants
USD 2.14T · 25.8%
Vehicle maintenance and repair
USD 902bn · 10.9%
Buses and coaches
USD 652bn · 7.9%
Passenger transport by air
USD 532bn · 6.4%
Other vehicle services
USD 466bn · 5.6%
Vehicle parts and accessories
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Taxis and hired cars
USD 390bn · 4.7%
USD 246bn
USD 135bn
USD 102bn
- Motor cyclesUSD 246bn
- Passenger transport by railwayUSD 135bn
- BicyclesUSD 102bn
- Combined passenger transportUSD 55bn
- Passenger transport by sea and inland waterwayUSD 46bn
- Other purchased transport servicesUSD 27bn
Motor cars
USD 2.19T · 26.5%
Fuel and lubricants
USD 2.14T · 25.8%
Vehicle maintenance and repair
USD 902bn · 10.9%
Buses and coaches
USD 652bn · 7.9%
Passenger transport by air
USD 532bn · 6.4%
Other vehicle services
USD 466bn · 5.6%
Vehicle parts and accessories
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Taxis and hired cars
USD 390bn · 4.7%
Motor cycles
USD 246bn · 3.0%
Passenger transport by railway
USD 135bn · 1.6%
Bicycles
USD 102bn · 1.2%
Combined passenger transport
USD 55bn · 0.7%
USD 46bn
USD 27bn
- Passenger transport by sea and inland waterwayUSD 46bn
- Other purchased transport servicesUSD 27bn
See the data
| Category line | 2026 (USD bn) | Share of plotted spending (%) | Annual growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor cars | 2193.3 | 26.5 | 3.98 |
| Fuel and lubricants | 2136.0 | 25.8 | 4.83 |
| Vehicle maintenance and repair | 901.9 | 10.9 | 3.87 |
| Buses and coaches | 652.3 | 7.9 | 6.31 |
| Passenger transport by air | 531.7 | 6.4 | 3.78 |
| Other vehicle services | 465.9 | 5.6 | 4.08 |
| Vehicle parts and accessories | 389.8 | 4.7 | 4.00 |
| Taxis and hired cars | 389.5 | 4.7 | 5.69 |
| Motor cycles | 245.8 | 3.0 | 4.43 |
| Passenger transport by railway | 134.8 | 1.6 | 4.69 |
| Bicycles | 102.4 | 1.2 | 4.28 |
| Combined passenger transport | 55.4 | 0.7 | 3.35 |
| Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway | 46.3 | 0.6 | 4.36 |
| Other purchased transport services | 26.9 | 0.3 | 3.46 |
Five decisions a mobility team can settle with this data.
01
Market entry and prioritisation
The cities holding the most transport spending today are not the ones adding it fastest. Across the forty largest markets in the model the spread runs from 1.7% a year to 10.7%, which is the difference between a market that transforms by 2036 and one that barely moves. We rank every city on the spending that is forming rather than the spending already there.
02
Pricing and affordability
Spending on transport by rich consumers compounds at 5.91% a year, against 0.61% for the poorest. A cheaper range can hold its volume and still be defending a shrinking share of the growth, because the growth is not sitting where the volume is. We map spending power against your own price range in every market you sell in.
03
Category and portfolio strategy
Inside the category, passenger transport by road compounds at 6.08% a year while combined passenger transport manages 3.35%. Those are two different shelf decisions inside one category averaging 4.49%, and the average is what most portfolio reviews are still built on.
04
Segmentation and targeting
Spending on transport by the over-65s compounds at 6.28% a year, against 3.53% for the under-15s. In New York City the over-65s already hold 11% of the category. A pipeline aimed at the wrong life stage is chasing the slower half of the market, and the gap widens every year to 2036.
05
Demand forecasting and sizing
The category adds $4.57 trillion between 2026 and 2036, and none of it arrives evenly. A capacity decision taken now rests on the market that will exist in ten years rather than the one visible today. We project every market and every year to 2050.
Related categories
Explore adjacent spending
FAQ
Questions a mobility team asks us.
Consumers spend $8.27 trillion on transport in 2026, which is 11.7% of all their spending. The market grows 4.49% a year in current dollars and reaches $12.84 trillion by 2036. Between those two years it adds $4.57 trillion.
The fastest-growing subcategory is passenger transport by road at 6.08% a year and the slowest is combined passenger transport at 3.35%. The category as a whole grows 4.49% a year. The two largest subcategories are motor cars at $2.19 trillion and fuel and lubricants at $2.14 trillion. Both grow more slowly than passenger transport by road.
New York City spends the most at $138bn a year, followed by Los Angeles at $116bn and San Francisco at $74bn. We estimate the category for all 9,400+ cities in every year to 2040. The top ten of the 255 cities on this page's map hold 27% of the spending it shows.
Among the largest city markets, New Delhi grows fastest at 10.7% a year and Moscow slowest at 1.7%. The cities adding the most spending by 2036 make a different list, led by Jakarta at $55bn, New Delhi at $50bn and Los Angeles at $50bn.
Yes, every market and city splits the category into five age bands and five spending tiers. Sizing the cohort you target means filtering those same figures, with nothing extra to commission. Florence has the oldest profile, with 22% of its spending from the over-65s. San Francisco is the most affluent, with 96% from its richest spending tier.
We forecast every country, subcategory and cohort each year to 2050, and every city to 2040. Because one model produces all of them, a market and a city read on the same scale. The method is published and peer reviewed. Our page on how we measure spending sets it out. The average person spends $1,013 a year on transport today.
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