Market entry and prioritisation
India's consumer class grows 26% by 2030 and 21 countries lose theirs. The map of who gains consumers and who loses them is the first screen for an entry decision.
City markets
cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in the world's cities by 2040
take half of them
people join the consumer class in cities between now and 2040, counted gross before anyone leaves it
Share of a city's people spending $13.20 a day or more in 2021 PPP dollars, across more than 9,400 city markets.
| Bar: share of a city above the consumer line | 2026 (city markets) | 2040 (city markets) |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9,048 | 9,229 |
| 10% | 8,837 | 9,123 |
| 15% | 8,473 | 8,998 |
| 20% | 7,984 | 8,868 |
| 25% | 7,626 | 8,741 |
| 30% | 7,298 | 8,602 |
| 35% | 6,982 | 8,470 |
| 40% | 6,646 | 8,291 |
| 45% | 6,322 | 8,084 |
| 50% | 6,062 | 7,850 |
| 55% | 5,849 | 7,600 |
| 60% | 5,593 | 7,251 |
| 65% | 5,199 | 6,940 |
| 70% | 4,812 | 6,616 |
| 75% | 4,325 | 6,314 |
| 80% | 3,701 | 5,919 |
| 85% | 3,158 | 5,573 |
| 90% | 2,681 | 4,941 |
| 95% | 2,020 | 3,730 |
2026 to 2036, people crossing $13.20 a day in 2021 PPP
| # | City | Consumers added | A year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | DhakaBangladesh | +13.3m | 6.2% |
| 02 | JakartaIndonesia | +7.9m | 2.0% |
| 03 | KolkataIndia | +6.6m | 4.1% |
| 04 | ManilaPhilippines | +6.5m | 3.1% |
| 05 | New DelhiIndia | +4.9m | 1.7% |
| 06 | CairoEgypt | +4.1m | 1.9% |
| 07 | Dar es SalaamTanzania | +4.0m | 6.0% |
| 08 | KarachiPakistan | +3.9m | 4.3% |
| 09 | ShanghaiChina | +3.8m | 1.2% |
| 10 | MumbaiIndia | +3.1m | 1.6% |
2026 to 2036, share of the spending growth across the cities we publish, in current US dollars
| # | City | Share of city growth | A year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Los AngelesUnited States | 2.51% | 4.5% |
| 02 | New York CityUnited States | 2.35% | 3.7% |
| 03 | San FranciscoUnited States | 1.54% | 4.4% |
| 04 | JakartaIndonesia | 1.42% | 8.1% |
| 05 | TokyoJapan | 1.17% | 3.4% |
| 06 | LondonUnited Kingdom | 1.10% | 4.7% |
| 07 | MiamiUnited States | 1.03% | 4.2% |
| 08 | New DelhiIndia | 0.99% | 10.2% |
| 09 | SeoulSouth Korea | 0.96% | 4.5% |
| 10 | BeijingChina | 0.86% | 6.6% |
Jakarta and New Delhi: in both top tens
| City | Country (ISO code) | Year it passes $100 billion | Cities passing $100 billion that year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuala Lumpur | MYS | 2027 | 3 |
| Tianjin | CHN | 2028 | 3 |
| Mumbai | IND | 2029 | 6 |
| Ho Chi Minh City | VNM | 2029 | 6 |
| Dhaka | BGD | 2030 | 2 |
| Rio de Janeiro | BRA | 2031 | 3 |
| Bengaluru | IND | 2032 | 5 |
| Hyderabad | IND | 2033 | 7 |
| Perth | AUS | 2033 | 7 |
| Kolkata | IND | 2034 | 3 |
| Chennai | IND | 2036 | 6 |
| Santo Domingo | DOM | 2036 | 6 |
| Calgary | CAN | 2037 | 2 |
| Luanda | AGO | 2038 | 8 |
| Brisbane | AUS | 2038 | 8 |
| Almaty | KAZ | 2039 | 6 |
| Ahmedabad | IND | 2039 | 6 |
| Chattogram | BGD | 2040 | 2 |
India's consumer class grows 26% by 2030 and 21 countries lose theirs. The map of who gains consumers and who loses them is the first screen for an entry decision.
Towns take 48% of the world's population growth and big cities 23%. Growth is landing below the big city tier, which is where most catchment planning never looks.
100 of America's 3,148 counties take 57% of its growth, and in 42 of the 94 countries where the model can measure it one city holds more than half the urban consumer class. A national rollout and a city shortlist are different bets.
58 cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in the world's cities by 2040, counted gross, and 366 take half of them.
Kuala Lumpur passes $100 billion of consumer spending in 2027, Mumbai in 2029 and Dhaka in 2030. 54 cities are already there and 56 more cross by 2040.
Cities FAQ
We cover more than 9,400+ cities in 194 countries, observed to 2025 and forecast to 2040. Every one of them is on the map above as a separate city market. Each city's consumer class is split into five spending groups, from $13.20 a day to more than $130 a day, and twelve categories. You can then size a mass market and a premium one in the same city separately.
58 cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in cities between now and 2040, and 366 cities take half. The count is gross, before anyone who leaves the consumer class is taken off.
Dhaka adds the most by a wide margin. 13.3 million people there join the consumer class between 2026 and 2036, against 7.9 million in Jakarta and 6.6 million in Kolkata.
No. Los Angeles takes 2.51% of the growth in consumer spending across the world's cities to 2036, New York City 2.35% and San Francisco 1.54%. The first ranking counts people in the consumer class and the second counts spending in current US dollars. The ranking you plan against decides which city you enter first.
In 42 of the 94 countries we can measure, one city holds more than half the country's urban consumer class. Bamako holds 90.6% of Mali's, Kathmandu 83.4% of Nepal's and Kampala 82.0% of Uganda's. In those countries a national plan and a city plan are the same decision.
54 cities already pass $100 billion of consumer spending a year and 56 more get there by 2040. The timeline above names one or two of the largest cities to cross in each year. You can set the bar wherever suits your business. With the bar at half of a city's people above the consumer line, 6,062 cities clear it today and 7,850 do by 2040.
Cities
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