World Data Lab

City markets

A quarter of the world's new urban consumers arrive in 58 cities.

58 citiesthe next 308every other city
58

cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in the world's cities by 2040

366

take half of them

725m

people join the consumer class in cities between now and 2040, counted gross before anyone leaves it

Most people clear the consumer line in 6,062 city markets today and 7,850 by 2040.

6,062of 9,561 city markets have more than 50% of their people above the consumer line in 2026.
0%25%50%75%95%
Year
clears the barbelow itdot size is the city's population

Share of a city's people spending $13.20 a day or more in 2021 PPP dollars, across more than 9,400 city markets.

City markets where at least a given share of people spend $13.20 a day or more (2021 PPP), out of more than 9,400 city markets, 2026 and 2040. Source: World Data Intelligence.
See the data
Number of city markets that clear each bar, 2026 and 2040
Bar: share of a city above the consumer line2026 (city markets)2040 (city markets)
5%9,0489,229
10%8,8379,123
15%8,4738,998
20%7,9848,868
25%7,6268,741
30%7,2988,602
35%6,9828,470
40%6,6468,291
45%6,3228,084
50%6,0627,850
55%5,8497,600
60%5,5937,251
65%5,1996,940
70%4,8126,616
75%4,3256,314
80%3,7015,919
85%3,1585,573
90%2,6814,941
95%2,0203,730

The cities adding the most consumers and the most spending are different lists.

Most consumers added

2026 to 2036, people crossing $13.20 a day in 2021 PPP

#CityConsumers addedA year
01DhakaBangladesh+13.3m6.2%
02JakartaIndonesia+7.9m2.0%
03KolkataIndia+6.6m4.1%
04ManilaPhilippines+6.5m3.1%
05New DelhiIndia+4.9m1.7%
06CairoEgypt+4.1m1.9%
07Dar es SalaamTanzania+4.0m6.0%
08KarachiPakistan+3.9m4.3%
09ShanghaiChina+3.8m1.2%
10MumbaiIndia+3.1m1.6%

Most consumer spending added

2026 to 2036, share of the spending growth across the cities we publish, in current US dollars

#CityShare of city growthA year
01Los AngelesUnited States2.51%4.5%
02New York CityUnited States2.35%3.7%
03San FranciscoUnited States1.54%4.4%
04JakartaIndonesia1.42%8.1%
05TokyoJapan1.17%3.4%
06LondonUnited Kingdom1.10%4.7%
07MiamiUnited States1.03%4.2%
08New DelhiIndia0.99%10.2%
09SeoulSouth Korea0.96%4.5%
10BeijingChina0.86%6.6%

Jakarta and New Delhi: in both top tens

Time entry to the year a city passes $100 billion.

The year a city passes $100 billion of consumer spending a year, in nominal US dollars, 2027 to 2040. 56 cities pass it in these years, after 54 that had passed it by 2026. The timeline names one city for each year, the largest by 2040 spending, or two when four or more cities pass in the same year. Source: World Data Intelligence.
See the data
Year each named city passes $100 billion of consumer spending, and the number of cities passing that year, 2027 to 2040
CityCountry (ISO code)Year it passes $100 billionCities passing $100 billion that year
Kuala LumpurMYS20273
TianjinCHN20283
MumbaiIND20296
Ho Chi Minh CityVNM20296
DhakaBGD20302
Rio de JaneiroBRA20313
BengaluruIND20325
HyderabadIND20337
PerthAUS20337
KolkataIND20343
ChennaiIND20366
Santo DomingoDOM20366
CalgaryCAN20372
LuandaAGO20388
BrisbaneAUS20388
AlmatyKAZ20396
AhmedabadIND20396
ChattogramBGD20402

Five decisions a city team can settle with this data.

Market entry and prioritisation

India's consumer class grows 26% by 2030 and 21 countries lose theirs. The map of who gains consumers and who loses them is the first screen for an entry decision.

Store and site planning

Towns take 48% of the world's population growth and big cities 23%. Growth is landing below the big city tier, which is where most catchment planning never looks.

Distribution and coverage

100 of America's 3,148 counties take 57% of its growth, and in 42 of the 94 countries where the model can measure it one city holds more than half the urban consumer class. A national rollout and a city shortlist are different bets.

City level sizing

58 cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in the world's cities by 2040, counted gross, and 366 take half of them.

Timing the entry

Kuala Lumpur passes $100 billion of consumer spending in 2027, Mumbai in 2029 and Dhaka in 2030. 54 cities are already there and 56 more cross by 2040.

Cities FAQ

Questions a city team asks us.

We cover more than 9,400+ cities in 194 countries, observed to 2025 and forecast to 2040. Every one of them is on the map above as a separate city market. Each city's consumer class is split into five spending groups, from $13.20 a day to more than $130 a day, and twelve categories. You can then size a mass market and a premium one in the same city separately.

58 cities take a quarter of the 725 million people who join the consumer class in cities between now and 2040, and 366 cities take half. The count is gross, before anyone who leaves the consumer class is taken off.

Dhaka adds the most by a wide margin. 13.3 million people there join the consumer class between 2026 and 2036, against 7.9 million in Jakarta and 6.6 million in Kolkata.

No. Los Angeles takes 2.51% of the growth in consumer spending across the world's cities to 2036, New York City 2.35% and San Francisco 1.54%. The first ranking counts people in the consumer class and the second counts spending in current US dollars. The ranking you plan against decides which city you enter first.

In 42 of the 94 countries we can measure, one city holds more than half the country's urban consumer class. Bamako holds 90.6% of Mali's, Kathmandu 83.4% of Nepal's and Kampala 82.0% of Uganda's. In those countries a national plan and a city plan are the same decision.

54 cities already pass $100 billion of consumer spending a year and 56 more get there by 2040. The timeline above names one or two of the largest cities to cross in each year. You can set the bar wherever suits your business. With the bar at half of a city's people above the consumer line, 6,062 cities clear it today and 7,850 do by 2040.

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9,400+ cities194 countriesCity forecasts to 2040

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